Assessing Landscape Ecological Risk for a World Natural Heritage Site: a Case Study of Bayanbulak in China

Wetland protection, floral and faunal resource management, and habitat migration are all concerns for the ecological risk of wetland landscapes. Indices of landscape-scale ecological risks have the potential to influence changes in landscape patterns, the conditions of endangered plants and animals, and influences from nature and humans. Semi-variation function and gravity center models were used to quantify risk area changes. The changes of landscape ecological risk were analyzed for Bayanbulak Wetland from 2000 to 2010. In addition to landscape and species distribution data, GIS technology and remote sensing were used in this study. Results show that landscape structure changed over the 10-year period, with high-cover grassland area decreasing the most. Landscape pattern index types also changed for the study area. The number of landscapetype patches to low-cover grassland decreased, the landscape fragmentation index of dry land and high-cover grassland was reduced, and the interference degree of middle-cover grassland increased over the study period. The index of landscape ecological risk decreased from 2000 to 2010, with the spatial structure changing from a single center concentration to a multi-center distribution. All varying ecological risk regions of gravity centers moved from the northeast to the southwest. The gravity migration of the Level 2 region moved the furthest. Additionally, evidence suggests that various threatening factors reduce the ecological function and systems of wetlands. These include climate change, biological invasion, human activities, and water pollution. This paper assesses the heritage site landscape ecological risk and calculates the gravity center change of the region, which can be formulated to enrich and develop the research of smalland medium-sized wetlands in cold, semi-arid climates.